📚 I finished The Sun Also Rises last week which I loved (the movie not so much). Part of me wishes I’d read it younger but I know there’s a lot in there I wouldn’t have gotten until around my age. Desperate now to visit Spain and get back to Paris. I tried reading The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby about the history of the VC industry in the US but honestly found it a boring, especially compared to his great history of hedge funds, More Money than God.
✍️ I wrote about why I think this third season of White Lotus was so disappointing. Aside from the weaker characters and writing, the pacing and editing of the narrative felt so off to me.
when it’s used as a crutch, when every thread is spliced into micro-moments, none are allowed to breathe. There’s little connective tissue between beats, and even less payoff. What should feel like deliberate narrative choreography instead reads as a mechanical relay race between storylines, each baton passed off just as we begin to care…
The editing pattern of White Lotus feels like a direct response to this phenomenon, a competitive adaptation, an early milestone in the TikTokification of TV. I just can’t shake the feeling that the third season is intentionally edited for this effect, the way Cocomelon is engineered with rapid cuts to capture the attention of children.
🍿 What I can recommend though: The Pitt, on Max, and Warfare, in theaters. Both are examples of real-time (ish) storytelling and aim to keep your attention completely gripped. But whereas White Lotus does it cheaply, these ones actually deliver on the goods. Especially with The Pitt, I felt like I was watching an exciting show that didn’t feel like a stale imitation of “prestige” era TV but something new: a synthesis of old-school network storytelling craftsmanship with modern kinetic camera work and writing. And economically, no more A-list movie stars brought in to lend gravity to B- material, just a talented cast and a cheap set.
Highlights in this issue: frontrunners for the next pope, India and Pakistan at war, an Ivy League PE selloff, daily pill GLP-1 drugs
Good reading,
—TK
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🍸 Woke up hungover last weekend? I wrote about why that actually happens. Next time, take Last Call to help you metabolize alcohol better and feel better the next day. fD readers get 20% off their first order with promo code “FD20”
🇻🇦 The papal conclave to select the next pope begins today. Polymarket has Cardinals Parolin (Italy) and Tagle (Philippines) as the frontrunners.
Parolin is seen by some cardinals as a reliable functionary, but not the charismatic voice sought by progressive electors nor the doctrinally sound option that conservatives want. Many have questioned Parolin’s lack of pastoral skills…
The question on many cardinals’ minds—if Parolin doesn’t prevail in early rounds of voting—is who are the alternatives. Contenders include Cardinal Robert Prevost, an American who has developed an extensive network as the head of the Vatican office for bishops, and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, archbishop of Marseille.
Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle was once among the favorites, but in recent days cardinals have indicated that Tagle’s star is fading.
I’m really fascinated by this process as the Vatican is the world’s only theocratic elective monarchy. A note to my fellow Catholics, gambling on who’ll be pope used to be grounds for excommunication. I’m usually pretty bullish on the power of prediction markets (I wrote about that here), but my intuition is that there’s probably not a lot of information priced into this particular one on Polymarket. I don’t expect there’s a lot of reliable information going around about the 135 eligible voting cardinals and I also expect that many will change their minds during the conclave.
🇮🇳 India conducted retaliatory strikes in Pakistan and the two nuclear powers are now in a shooting war
After terrorist attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2016 and 2019, India conducted more limited strikes in Pakistani-controlled territory. But this time, India “has crossed two significant thresholds in its military action” by hitting a large number of sites in Pakistan and striking the Pakistani heartland in Punjab, Mr. Mir said.
The strikes come two weeks after militants killed 24 tourists in the contested region of Kashmir.
two separate instruments on the telescope have detected high levels of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and dimethyl disulphide (DMDS), molecules that are produced on Earth only by living organisms, particularly marine phytoplankton.
The astronomers stopped short of claiming definitive evidence of biological activity but they said the new findings were compelling, as no known non-biological process could account for such a large quantity of organic molecules.
💸 Yale and Harvard are making moves to sell off large chunks of their private equity holdings in the secondary market
Yale University pioneered the “endowment model”, which emphasises diversified investments with a significant allocation to alternative assets – particularly private equity – as a key driver of returns… Yale is entering the secondaries market at a turbulent time. The bid-ask spread is expected to widen as investors factor in valuation uncertainty driven by the tariffs.
Harvard has allocated almost 40% of its $53 billion endowment to private equity… Along with other universities, the school is facing pressure because investment firms are finding it difficult to sell companies and return money back to their limited partners.
The uniquely long time horizons of these endowments allowed them to handle the illiquidity of these private asset classes and earn higher returns for it. But now that private valuations have gotten so high and PE firms are having a hard time turning their investments back into cash they can return to their investors, we might start seeing more of these assets marked down in value which could start a whole chain of events.
🔨 Someone broke into Gov. Josh Shapiro’s house and burned it down in an attempt to assassinate him.
This has gotten a bit lost amidst the crazy pace of breaking news cycles but I think it’s important to note. One of the things that stuck with me from listening to the History of Rome podcast last year was the marked increase in political violence in the late Roman Republic, especially with the assault/murder of tribunes. Let’s not forget the nearly successful assassination attempt on President Trump only last year.
🚢 Cargo trade from China to the US is plummeting amidst the ongoing trade war.
Dozens of canceled sailings from China were due to reach U.S. seaports in the coming weeks. Freight demand from China to the West Coast of the U.S. could fall 28% next week, while demand at East Coast ports could plunge 42% the following week
Based on the lagging effect on shipping and inventory, I think we’ll start seeing the impact of the recent actions on store shelves within a few weeks. I’m expecting shift in media coverage on the consumer reaction to all this soon as people start seeing the headlines affect what they see in their daily lives.
💊 Daily pill forms of GLP-1 drugs are showing positive results. “The drug reduced weight by an average of 16 pounds”
If the pill is approved, Lilly could capture even more of the obesity market that it dominates with Novo Nordisk, with analysts predicting sales in the billions from orforglipron. Shares of Lilly jumped more than 15% Thursday in afternoon trading after Lilly reported their study results.
[The deputy president of the court, Lord Patrick Hodge,] added: “We counsel against reading this judgment as a triumph of one or more groups in our society at the expense of another. It is not.” He said that trans people would continue to have protections against discrimination, but that it would be under the protected characteristic of “gender reassignment” rather than sex…
“It is not the task of this court to make policy on how the interests of these groups should be protected,” he added, but “to ascertain the meaning of the legislation which Parliament has enacted.”
🍺 The craft beer market declined 4% in 2024, its largest drop ever. That includes non-alcoholic (NA) craft beer which probably masked some of the legacy decline.
You’ve made it all the way to the end! Thanks for reading fD. You can support my work by upgrading to premium or share the newsletter with a friend. —TK
Here’s a link to my News Journal where I'm collecting the headlines that catch my interest each day so that when we look back at that at the end of the year, we'll see when things happened, what kind of patterns emerged, without the problem of hindsight bias.
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