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📈 first Derivative [115]

“destroying Hamas in Gaza is unachievable”
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🎬 We’re halfway through the year so here’s my midway movie update. I set a goal this year for watching under 100 films and I’m on track for 92. I’ve seen 41 narrative movies, 2 documentaries, 2 limited series, and 1 short film. I saw 17 in theater and 15 that came out this year.

Here’s my ranking for 2024 releases and my ranking for everything I’ve seen this year. I’d say it’s been a weak year so far and I can only really recommend Dune: Part Two and Shōgun. I wrote a bit about both a while back. Out of everything that I’ve seen though I can strongly recommend all of these, all ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️+. Most were first time views for me (except for Uncut Gems and Mad Max: Fury Road).

Some films coming out in the second half of the year that I’m excited to see: Longlegs (Jul 12), Twisters (Jul 19), Anora (Oct 18), Gladiator II (Nov 22), Nosferatu (Dec 25)

Highlights in this issue:

  • Biden’s horrible debate

  • Sweden’s military service program

  • the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling

  • “unachievable” military victory in Gaza

Good reading,

TK

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🇺🇸📉 President Biden had a disastrous performance last week in the presidential debate with Donald Trump (highlights). Back in December, one of my predictions for 2024 was that Trump would win the election this year. At that time they were about even in the prediction markets. Trump is at 66% now to Biden’s 17%. Biden is down to only 62% to even get the Democratic nomination.

Ben Hunt wrote a good piece on why the debate was so critical for coordinating common knowledge about Biden’s mental impairments and what happens next:

Obama saying it was a ‘bad night’ is a classic limited hangout, where you confess truthfully to a small thing to stop the questioning on a big thing. Obama can’t be seen as the guy with the knife, but he can absolutely give his boys Jon Favreau and Ben Rhodes the green light to, if not stab away, then at least to distance themselves, their social media and their fundraising from the Biden campaign.

Democratic leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Jim Clyburn have started publicly questioning Biden’s mental fitness. Even the The New York Times published an editorial calling on Biden to withdraw from the race and is keeping up a steady stream of reporting about Biden’s infirmities prior to the debate:

In the weeks and months before President Biden’s politically devastating performance on the debate stage in Atlanta, several current and former officials and others who encountered him behind closed doors noticed that he increasingly appeared confused or listless, or would lose the thread of conversations… Last week’s debate prompted some around him to express concern that the decline had accelerated lately.

When cracks like this begin to show, things tend to develop quickly. Post-debate, we’re in a new paradigm and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Biden steps down, despite reporting that his family is encouraging him to stay in it.


🏛 In Trump v. United States (oral arguments), a landmark case on executive power, the Supreme Court ruled that the president has broad immunity from criminal prosecution for “official acts” made during their time in office.

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first Derivative
first Derivative Podcast
Trends and insights across tech, economics, foreign affairs, culture, and more. Studying the arc of the past and approximating the trajectory of the future.