First Derivative [47]
blockchain — civilizational decline — sexual ethics — feminism — monetary policy — Chinese economy — war — Trump
first Derivative [47]
January 26, 2018
Dear readers,
It's almost a year now since I first started sending out a weekly email on Nuzzel. Our subscriber numbers have gone up exponentially (from our original base of 1, thanks Austin!), narrowly outperforming certain cryptocurrencies.
What you're reading now is a soft launch of a rebranding I'm doing for this newsletter. Moving to MailChimp gives me more flexibility on the type of content I can share with you all. As for first Derivative, I'm not tied to the name, but I do think it gives a better sense of what I want this newsletter to be, using the information we have at hand to realize the arc of our past and approximate the trajectory of the future.
As always, I'm very grateful for your time and attention in this crazy world. I hope that fD continues to be a valuable part of your reading and something you can look forward to seeing every Friday in your inbox. Cheers,
Teddy
P.S. Any feedback on design, format, font, etc. for the redesign would be really appreciated!
blockchain — civilizational decline — sexual ethics — feminism — monetary policy — Chinese economy — war — Trump
Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble
by Steven Johnson (The New York Times) "Token economies introduce a strange new set of elements that do not fit the traditional models: instead of creating value by owning something, as in the shareholder equity model, people create value by improving the underlying protocol" Some caveats from Jill Carlson—TK
How Democracies Perish
by David Brooks (The New York Times) “Greek and medieval philosophies valued liberty, but they understood that before a person could help govern society, he had to be able to govern himself. People had to be habituated in virtue by institutions they didn’t choose — family, religion, community, social norms.”
Am I a bad feminist?
by Margaret Atwood (The Globe and Mail)
“The #MeToo moment is a symptom of a broken legal system… But what next? The legal system can be fixed, or our society could dispose of it… If the legal system is bypassed because it is seen as ineffectual, what will take its place? Who will be the new power brokers?”
The Claims Against Aziz Ansari Reveal the Defects of Modern Sexual Morality
by David French (National Review)
“No jury would convict a man for assault under these circumstances, but that doesn’t mean Grace is wrong to feel upset.”
China: market bulls beat the short sellers — for now
by Robin Wigglesworth and Gabriel Wildau (Financial Times)
"Why were the China bears so wrong? Did they fail to understand the way the Chinese economy works or were they just too early? In markets there is often little difference. But for the global economy this is one of the most important questions to answer in 2018.”
Jordan Peterson debate on the gender pay gap, campus protests and postmodernism
(Channel 4 News)
Worth watching in full I think. Even if you disagree with much of what he says, Peterson is the strong case of what you want to disprove—TK
If Quantitative Easing (QE) is inflationary in theory, but deflationary in practice, will Quantitative Tightening (QT) have the opposite effect?
(13D Research)
“Further QT could trigger a weaker U.S. dollar, which would, counterintuitively, put upward pressure on consumer price inflation.”
Future U.S. Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit
(Philosophical Economics)
Most state and local pension funds are assuming future returns of ~7.5%. This post makes a strong, comprehensive case for why that will be virtually impossible to meet.—TK
Trump’s Effort to Fire Mueller: Reactions to the New York Times Report
by Susan Hennessey, Quinta Jurecic, and Benjamin Wittes (Lawfare)
“Trump’s apparent willingness to fire the special counsel in a fit of rage — even after experiencing the blowback that followed his dismissal of Comey — drives home the fact that his hints about firing other senior members of federal law enforcement are far from idle.”
The growing danger of great-power conflict
(The Economist)
ABOUT fD
fD is a weekly newsletter focusing on deep trends and signal insights in technology, politics, economics, foreign affairs, culture, philosophy, and more. The goal is to deliver content and analyses that matter beyond the present.
I hope you enjoy. Questions and comments always welcome—TK
EPHEMERA
Started and finished Big Little Lies. Highly recommend